"If and when Tampa is hit by a hurricane from the southwest, it wont take much of a hurricane to cause severe and catastrophic damage due to storm surge. When asked about a myth spreading around town, county archaeologist Dan Hughes jumped in: "Let me guess. Sarasota is protected from hurricanes because the American Indians who once lived here knew it was a safe place, which is why they decided to live here. Tampa Bay is shallow and many low-lying neighborhoods get flooded during a strong rainstorm. The National Hurricane Center is predicting storm surge in Tampa Bay and surrounding waters of between 5 and 10 feet (1.5 and 3 meters) above normal tide conditions and rainfall of between 10 and 15 inches (12 and 25 centimeters) because of Hurricane Ian. Based on historical data, on average a hurricane will pass within 50 miles of the Miami metropolitan area every six to eight years. 1998 - 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. | All Rights Reserved. Pulling back from the most vulnerable areas must be part of the overall strategy, but its unrealistic to think coastal communities will just close up shop. Since then, the Tampa Bay has remained untouched. The 20 U.S. cities most in danger of getting smacked by a major hurricane in the next decades are all in Florida. And, taking into account climate change, areas that wouldn't flood before could now be under several feet of water. It has been called Dr. Seuss Day because of this. The western coast of Florida has endured its share of hurricanes, and the city of Tampa is no exception. Just as an example, the city of Tampa had about 51,000 residents in 1920. "In order for Tampa to get a direct landfall, the storm has to hit them from the southwest," Kottlowski said. Those figures are based on a Tampa . Hurricane Gladys produced 100 mph winds in Clearwater. Due to global warming, global climate models predict hurricanes will likely cause more intense rainfall and have an increased coastal flood risk due to higher storm surge caused by rising seas, Angela Colbert, a scientist at NASAs Jet Propulsion Laboratory, wrote in a June report. Areas around Tampa, Jacksonville and the Big Bend do not have as high of a risk of a direct strike from a hurricane but are still susceptible to a landfall each year. "But it was still a hurricane and caused lots of damage.". But, luckily, the area has avoided. Those Tocobagan mounds can only hold back so many storms. Im convinced that geographically were incapable of being hit with a storm. Want next-level safety, ad-free? A new study suggests that climate change is making back-to-back hurricanes more common, which could make it tougher for coastal communities to recover. In the Village of Cortez, the storm wiped out nearly every home of the small fishing village. "Thank goodness for the Tocobagans is all I have to say.". However, that doesnt stop locals from looking for answers. Newspaper reports at the time warned of a hurricane churning in the Gulf of Mexico, but no one knew where or when it would hit. "That's a lot of rain. Hours later, Tampa was under 11 feet of water. Phil Klotzbach, research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, noted that only one of five hurricanes at Category 3 strength or higher has struck Tampa Bay since 1851. Its almost like when a myth becomes history, Farias said. Follow @TBTimes_Opinion on Twitter for more opinion news. In 2004 Hurricane Charley made landfall near Punta Gorda, south of the Bay Area. But again," he paused, "a hurricane hitting from the southwest or even the west would be very unusual.". Although there were tragically two deaths in the Sarasota area, and reports of damage and power outages elsewhere, the region was, for the most part, spared. Since it seems to be working, many people still believe in the legend. Hurricane Katrina (2005) is a prime example of the damage and devastation that can be caused by surge. "Miami has a large population density, and as a result, the effects of a major hurricane would be catastrophic to the city," AccuWeather Meteorologist David Samuhel said. The most recent near-miss occurred in August 2021 when Tropical Storm Fred came within 195 miles of Tampa. July 2, 2020, 10:58 AM. In addition to this, a majority of the population resides within 20 miles of the coastline increasing the risk of high property damage. It's why they headed north to Pass-a-Grille. Half of all the refined petroleum gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel for the state of Florida comes under the Sunshine Skyway bridge. All of these hurricanes would have had devastating impacts on Tampa Bay but veered off course and missed. Tampa Bay has dodged a direct hurricane hit for a century. Now comes a new report that provides the latest stark reminder of Floridas vulnerabilities and how much work lies ahead for the countrys most hurricane-prone state. He made these remarks during a sit down interview recently at the National Hurricane Conference in Orlando with News Channel 8 Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist Jeff Berardelli. The petroleum facilities would be out of business for days at a time. This is vividly illustrated below in category 5 Hurricane Andrew, in which the most intense winds were confined to the eyewall near Homestead, Kendall and Coral Gables, a fair distance south of Miami and very far south of Ft Lauderdale. Part of that legend is the many mounds built by the Tocobagan tribe in what is now Pinellas County that some believe are meant as guardians against invaders, including hurricanes. And with so many new residents moving to the Sunshine State, who have yet to experience a direct hit from a hurricane, emergency managers are concerned residents may not fully understand threat. Thats unlikely to change anytime soon. Hundreds of years before them, so did the Tocobagan tribe, which built mounds along the Pinellas peninsula. Hurricane Irma is the most recent in 2017. Because the system was so tight, it was able to remain intense far inland, even into southern and eastern portions of the Bay Area. The story goes something like this, with the emphasis on "something.". Its one of the most populated areas on Floridas Gulf Coast, but hasnt had a direct hit from a landfalling hurricane in 100 years. "That'll be good," LaMarre said. Thats a lot of rain. So while we love the memes of a carefree Tampa: Make sure to prepare for every hurricane. Tampa Bay has had many close calls since 1921. And it could be bad. If you use a windshield cover, you can at least forget about scrapping the ice off your windshield to save some time and hassle. A new study suggests that climate change is making back-to-back hurricanes more common, which could make it tougher for coastal communities to recover. "Do they want to protect their burial mounds," Farias wondered in the interview. We havent done enough to fortify coastal areas against sea-level rise. Thats all the more reason for people and places to get prepared. As the Tampa Bay Times explains, it's likely that Ian will bring up to a foot of rain in the area and some experts, including meteorologist Jeff Masters, have compared it to 2005's Hurricane Katrina. war and disease brought by a Spanish explorer, Supernatural forces at play? As a hurricane's winds diminish, so does its ability to cause damage. "On the Port Resiliency Index, developed by the Gulf of Mexico Alliance, the Port scored 95%.". This article represents the opinion of the Tampa Bay Times Editorial Board. Now, areas south of Tampa are expected to see up to an 18 ft (5.5 m) storm surge during the peak of the hurricane, creating "life-threatening" conditions, according to the National Hurricane . "I did everything I could to protect their artifacts," Farias said before Irma came through, letting the Tampa Bay area off the hook by weakening to a storm with less-than-catastrophic winds. The last time Tampa Bay sustained a direct hit by a hurricane was in October 1921, a full century ago, before hurricanes were given names. But as seen below on this FEMA map, the swath of damage was very narrow. Weve made it through another major that was supposed to come right at us. One, we are very worried about hurricanes. There are two version of the Native American folklore: either the knowledge that Sarasota was a safe haven was passed through generations of Native peoples or their burials places provided the protection from hurricanes. There are a number of serious hazards that come along with hurricanes striking a coastal area. "Or would they let a hurricane hit to get even with the Spanish and the white settlers that moved down from the north and took their land? This includes the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane which was remembered as one of the most intense U.S. hurricanes based on pressure and maximum wind speeds," Samuhel said. Some estimates are as much as 15 feet of storm surge. After all, they are called barriers for a reason. In 1848, one-third of the famous mound was washed away by a hurricane. Built in 1922, residents are known to line up there to pray. The only other hurricane known to have made a direct hit on Tampa Bay was the Great Gale of 1848, which made landfall in Clearwater, Florida in late September174 years ago. In any given year, there are some U.S. cities that are at higher risk than others to experience the impacts of a hurricane. Was Florida red tide made worse by Hurricane Ian? HURRICANE IRMA: Find all of our coverage here. And as we know by Floridas ever-growing population, people arent moving away from the risk. Graham referenced the past couple of years hyperactive hurricane seasons and the multiple landfalls in Louisiana, saying that in a different weather pattern, that could have easily been the West Coast of Florida. It made landfall in Big Pine Key as a category 4, causing devastating damage. Kottlowski explained that Irma "was a Cat 1 when it passed just east ofdowntown Tampa with a tropical-storm-force wind field of over 300 miles. "As they are in this two-story building, the water is rising even higher, and you know this was a kid's account talking about it. "I like to believe those things are true," Farias mused. Associated Press writer Anthony Izaguirre in Tallahassee contributed to this story. ", Miami & Fisher Island from 500 feet (Flickr Photo/Mohd Althani). Storm Team 8s Chief Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli explained. As time goes on, it comes true.. Tampa Skyline (Flickr Photo/Sonny Side Up!). "As time goes on, it comes true.". Most recently in 2004, Hurricane Charley caused $16 billion in damages when the Category 4 storm made landfall just south of Tampa. Sarasota has not been a bull's-eye for a major hurricane since reliable records began in 1871. TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) Tampa Bay was bracing for a direct hit from Hurricane Ian, as experts predicted, before the storm shifted and barreled through Lee County, leaving a path of destruction. The 1921 storm sent a storm surge all the way into downtown Tampa into Ybor. This piece of folklore came from my co-worker, who grew up in Tampa, Florida. Another, to the magic powers of Siesta Key's white sand beaches and underwater crystals. Tampa, situated on a peninsula lying along Tampa Bay and the Gulf of Mexico, is exposed to hurricanes entering the Gulf and systems forming in the Atlantic. A report from the Boston-based catastrophe modeling firm Karen Clark and Co. concluded in 2015 that Tampa Bay is the most vulnerable place in the U.S. to storm surge flooding from a hurricane and stands to lose $175 billion in damage. With determination, innovation, and ingenuity, Port Tampa Bay is rising to the challenge of a changing climate," Lisa Wolf-Chason, the Director of Communications for Port Tampa Bay, said. What are those large pyramids next to the Skyway? We asked. With satellites, cell phones, and advanced technology, we can track storms days, even weeks in advance. Tampa-Hillsborough County Public Library System. On Sundays, the park opens for public tours. Hurricane Gladys in 1968, Hurricane Donna, 1960, Hurricane Easy, 1950, and the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane. "If you look at our original floors that I'm standing on right now, you can see where there are rusted nails and that kind of thing from floods over the years," Chasey said. This map shows hurricanes that have passed with 100 miles of St. Petersburg, Florida since 1960. Sarasota is protected from hurricanes because the American Indians who once lived here knew it was a safe place, which is why they decided to live here. Hurricane Ian could threaten all of that development. The Saffir Simpson hurricane scale categorizes these storms as catastrophic damage producers. A hundred years of good luck? Another reminder of Floridas massive hurricane risk | Editorial. "Because it is located by the shallow Tampa Bay, water piles up into the city, causing very significant storm surge along the coastline.". TAMPA, Fla. With so many near-misses over the decades, it had become common to believe Florida's Tampa Bay region was somehow protected from hurricanes. The third strike against the myth: If the American Indians did believe Sarasota was protected, more of them might have lived here. According to Berardelli, hurricanes would have to make the perfect turn to the east in order to make landfall in Tampa Bay, therefore making a direct hit on the region would be somewhat difficult. Profanity, personal "So there could be some scenarios where we do see, at least during the times of the highest storm surge, that there is a separation between the two areas of the county," Director of the Pinellas County EOC Cathie Perkins said. "It's almost like when a myth becomes history," Farias said. Try searching for a city, zip code or point of interest. 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